There is no doubt about it: Barbie is the most popular film of 2023, and the likelihood of something beating it is next to none. But while the film certainly boosts Warner Bros.’s bottom line, the box office does not directly indicate Oscar success. Even so, many critics and audiences agree that the movie is good enough for nominations and maybe a win or two at the upcoming Oscars, though it has a better chance in some categories than others.
The Story of ‘Barbie’
For those who have yet to experience it, this film tells a reimagined version of the Mattel toy’s many lives in Barbie Land, a universe adjacent to the real world where Barbies rule over Kens as the prominent job-holders of society. After facing an existential crisis, one doll ventures to the other world to set her fears to rest, only to discover that men dominate this foreign land and Barbies inspire less joy with each passing year. As Barbie upsets the inharmonious balance of both worlds, she learns the greater truths about the meaning of humanity.
Challenges in the Best Picture Category
Barbie‘s overall good standing in the film community, with good ratings and positive global engagement, means an Oscar nomination for Best Picture is very likely. However, a win means facing up against steep competition from more critic-pleasing films. Many rumored Best Picture nominees, from Killers of the Flower Moon to the upcoming Jeffrey Wright vehicle American Fiction, have a firmer critic base backing them, putting Barbie at a disadvantage to win in this category. The highest ratings from critics in 2023 go to A24’s Past Lives and The Favourite follow-up Poor Things, both backed by studios who have turned in recent Oscar winners.
According to online engagement combined with critical and commercial success, the strongest candidate is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, the biopic heavyweight with astounding achievements in any Oscar category. Only Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse beats Oppenheimer for outpours of cinephile love, but nominations for animated films in the Best Picture category are exceedingly rare.
Other Categories Have a Better Chance for a ‘Barbie’ Win
Seeing Barbie win an Oscar is likely and welcomed by millions of fans, but predicting which category will be tough; the fantasy comedy bodes well in all aspects, but its inventive, meta-leaning screenplay is one of its greatest strengths. Praise for this film’s unique approach in the face of decades of standard animated portrayals gave it an immense following even before its release, and most agree that it used its social commentary to maximum effect. Even from those who criticize Barbie‘s overall impact, many found director Greta Gerwig and her co-screenwriter partner Noah Baumbach to be putting in their top ideas given the mostly inert attempts at adapting Barbie in the past.
Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling in ‘Barbie’
Remarkably, online discourse is passing over Margot Robbie’s Oscar potential for Best Actress at the upcoming Oscars in favor of a focus on the Supporting categories. Though Ryan Gosling and America Ferrera are understandably frontrunners for these categories (Gosling’s ridiculous Ken portrayal overshadowing Robbie’s leading role is beyond understanding), Emma Stone’s (Poor Things) and Carey Mulligan’s (Maestro) standing in the American film community might crush Robbie’s chance. At least Lily Gladstone’s (Killers of the Flower Moon) chance of nomination could assuage overlooking Robbie for this accolade.
For a Multitude of Reasons, ‘Barbie’ Deserves a Nod from the Academy
This film’s success alone makes it an achievement worthy of recognition. Whether you think Gerwig’s movie deserves that praise or not, no one would question multiple nominations at the 2024 Oscars. Like in any year, the most popular movies have a tough battle against the critical favorites to win, but given the quality of Barbie, we wager a win to pop up this March.
Barbie is streaming now on Max.